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zodlidd
9 Comments
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
Amazon Tops Estimates, But Did It Really Beat?
5 Key Quotes from Amazon on the E-Commerce Industry
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News
HELLO!?
No E-Commerce Worries for Amazon?
The $53M NON CASH operating gain, which caused the non-recurring income resulting in the lowered tax rate, didn't exist (and should be, as well as any affects it may cause, stripped out of analyst models), then the EBIT, excluding FX effect, of $147M would have been taxed, as forecast by analysts, at a 30% rate, resulting in an EPS of $0.24, which is ~$0.02 below consensus.
How can you strip out the one-time gain and not make a proforma adjustment to the tax rate, for the most "apples to apples" comparison?
Also, I agree that they raised revenue guidance - but at the expense of margins. the company's 3Q08E EBIT guidance (excluding $80M stock-based comp expense / amortization) of $195M - $240M is 25% to 2% below analyst consensus estimate of $244M.
The company's full-year EBIT estimate HAS A $175M gap, ranging from growth of 14% - 40%... Yet net sales are expected to grow between 30% and 35%..... management is baking in for a much greater probability of margin compression than expansion.
This, all coupled with the fact that the ~5-6% margin company trades at a 53X P/E multiple (compared with an industry average of ~30X) and has seen it's FCF, which was only increased 16% (compared to a "71%" EBIT increase excluding FX effects, show a sequential downwards trend and yet has its stock trade up 12% in after hours perplexes me.
Management completed dodged the question regarding the effects of the increase in oil prices on its margins. When asked about the specific impacts of the increase in oil expenses - "Could I ask two questions? First, what is the likely impact on your delivery and fulfillment charges, particularly with regard to Prime, of increased transportation costs? Is this really a 2009 phenomenon for you or is there a possible increase in delivery costs coming through the pipeline?"
Management stated "This is something that we've been dealing with for quite some time. It's part of our overall cost structure. We started in the US, some of the free shipping offers back in 2002, I believe. Oil prices were around $22 a barrel back in 2002. They've continued to grow. And certainly, it is more costly, but it's not something that's really new to us. It's part of our overall thinking as we look at our costs."
... this doesn't answer the question if the rising upward trend in shipping costs, which increased 38% quarter over quarter and increased from 2.6% of sales to 3.6% of sales (I would assume the opposite w/ the economy of scales leverage / cost savings) will continue?
Then common sense kicks in... you have a company selling products with complete elastic demand in a down market with rising fuel costs, which AMZN will continue to absorb (if sacrifice top-line growth if not), without the benefit of the tax rebates now (which presumably helped the revenue beat)...
Can someone logically explain why AMZN should trade at the levels it does?
Amazon Tops Estimates, But Did It Really Beat?
Amazon Tops Estimates, But Did It Really Beat?
The $53M gain, which caused the non-recurring income resulting in the lowered tax rate, didn't exist (and should be, as well as any affects it may cause, stripped out of analyst models), then the EBIT, excluding FX effect, of $147M would have been taxed, as forecast by analysts, at a 30% rate, resulting in an EPS of $0.24, which is ~$0.02 below consensus.
How can you strip out the one-time gain and not make a proforma adjustment to the tax rate, for the most "apples to apples" comparison?
Further, the company's 3Q08E EBIT guidance (excluding $80M stock-based comp expense / amortization) of $195M - $240M is 25% to 2% below analyst consensus estimate of $244M.
The company's full-year EBIT estimate HAS A $175M gap, ranging from growth of 14% - 40%... Yet net sales are expected to grow between 30% and 35%..... management is baking in for a much greater probability of margin compression than expansion.
This, all coupled with the fact that the ~5-6% margin company trades at a 53X P/E multiple (compared with an industry average of ~30X) and has seen it's FCF, which was only increased 16% (compared to a "71%" EBIT increase excluding FX effects, show a sequential downwards trend and yet has its stock trade up 12% in after hours perplexes me.
Management completed dodged the question regarding the effects of the increase in oil prices on its margins. When asked about the specific impacts of the increase in oil expenses - "Could I ask two questions? First, what is the likely impact on your delivery and fulfillment charges, particularly with regard to Prime, of increased transportation costs? Is this really a 2009 phenomenon for you or is there a possible increase in delivery costs coming through the pipeline?"
Management stated "This is something that we've been dealing with for quite some time. It's part of our overall cost structure. We started in the US, some of the free shipping offers back in 2002, I believe. Oil prices were around $22 a barrel back in 2002. They've continued to grow. And certainly, it is more costly, but it's not something that's really new to us. It's part of our overall thinking as we look at our costs."
... this doesn't answer the question if the rising upward trend in shipping costs, which increased 38% quarter over quarter and increased from 2.6% of sales to 3.6% of sales (I would assume the opposite w/ the economy of scales leverage / cost savings) will continue?
Then common sense kicks in... you have a company selling products with complete elastic demand in a down market with rising fuel costs, which AMZN will continue to absorb (if sacrifice top-line growth if not), without the benefit of the tax rebates now (which presumably helped the revenue beat)...
Management are clearly covering up here... how can the SEC / shareholders trust that?
CoSineTrading at Cash; $20/Share of NOLs
Steel Partners bought the majority of its shares back in 2004/2005 for $2.00 - $2.19 / share... who's to say they don't just vote in another one of their people during the next board meeting and wind this thing down - and pocket the $23M and their ~25% return?